The strength that the aftermarket enjoying today as Canadian car owners hold onto their cars longer, could give way to market softness later this decade.

DesRosiers Automotive Consultants says that vehicle usage patterns today indicate more or less flat aftermarket demand.

“Vehicle usage patterns are one of the key factors in determining the health of the Canadian automotive aftermarket. In the first half of 2024, Canada saw gasoline consumption figures decline slightly compared to the first half of 2023 – indicating some minor softness in the market,” says DAC.

“However, this needs to be considered in light of the changing structure of the fleet. Specifically in regard to ZEV adoption, DAC analysis shows ZEVs have now reached 2.6% of the total light vehicle fleet, while the second quarter of 2024 saw the ZEV share of new light vehicle registrations rise to 12.9%.”

The bottom line, says the researcher, is that the decline in gas consumption is very minor.

The researcher says that other metrics point to consistent strength of the aftermarket, even if the latest numbers are slightly off year over year.

“Much like gasoline consumption, retail sales figures for the first half of 2024 among automotive parts, accessories, and tire stores decreased slightly – in terms of retail sales by 1.1%. However, retail sales for these stores remain 41.2% above the first half of 2019 in terms of absolute dollar value; a rate of growth well above the rate of inflation.”

“Indicators point towards some minor softness in the automotive aftermarket in Canada this year, though Canadians are continuing to rely heavily on their vehicles and continuing to invest in their upkeep and operation” commented Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC.

Still, says King, the strong aftermarket today could see softness later this decade as a relatively lower number of new vehicles over recent years age into their prime aftermarket service years.

“It should be noted though the small volumes of vehicles sold in 2019-23 will start to work their way into their prime aftermarket years in the coming years – meaning that certain sectors of the aftermarket may face potential challenges later this decade.”

Prime aftermarket years are generally taken to be for vehicles seven to 11 years old, forecasting this trough to ease into the aftermarket starting in 2026 and continuing–based on current numbers–until 2030.

It should be noted that this will only affect new entries into their aftermarket years, not reflecting the ability of the aftermarket to continue to atract vehicles beyond their “prime” seven to 11 years.